Bluster? Bravado? Or something worse...

posted by The Vidiot @ 10:42 AM Permalink

So many stories out this last week about how we're gearing up for war with Iran. The latest is from the Nation.

Excerpt: Colonel Gardiner, who has taught military strategy at the National War College, says that the carrier deployment and a scheduled Persian Gulf arrival date of October 21 is "very important evidence" of war planning. He says, "I know that some naval forces have already received 'prepare to deploy orders' [PTDOs], which have set the date for being ready to go as October 1. Given that it would take about from October 2 to October 21 to get those forces to the Gulf region, that looks about like the date" of any possible military action against Iran. (A PTDO means that all crews should be at their stations, and ships and planes should be ready to go, by a certain date--in this case, reportedly, October 1.) Gardiner notes, "You cannot issue a PTDO and then stay ready for very long. It's a very significant order, and it's not done as a training exercise." This point was also made in the Time article.

If this is just bluster or bravado to scare the Iranians, then it's pretty damn good bluster or bravado. But if it's something worse, then we're in a whole heap of trouble.

Obviously, we can't put troops on the ground. We don't have enough troops without a draft. Also, one of the carriers heading out there is nuclear which adds another horrific dimension to the impending conflict. I recommend that you read Billmon's latest. It's depressing as hell though. He thinks nuclear is the only way the administration CAN succeed. A traditional bombing excercise would only raise the price of oil, thereby allowing Iran more money to rebuild and possibly move faster on getting the bomb.

Excerpt: There is only one U.S. move I can think of that could possibly offset Iran's natural advantages in this game of geopolitical chess -- the use of tactical nuclear weapons. The objective of such a strike would not only be to destroy Iran's nuclear plants more completely, but to demonstrate to Tehran that the old rules don't apply, that America is prepared to commit even barbarous war crimes if that's what it takes to deter hostile powers from acquiring, or even trying to acquire, nuclear weapons.

It would, in other words, take the logic of preventative war -- and Cheney's one percent doctrine -- to their ultimate conclusion.

Read the whole thing. It's very good.

If Bush et al really nukes Iran, I dunno how I could deal with that. Being a child of the cold war and all, the whole nuke thing scares me to the core. Here's hoping that they aren't so stupid as to start a nuclear war in the Middle East.

Yeah, hope.

Jeebus.